I don't consider myself a good card counter, or even an average one, but say no 7s had been played at all in six hands would the odds not be in my favor to play.

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The Wizard endorses these 3 casinos to play blackjack for real money. it also trains you to count cards in over 10 different blackjack card counting systems!

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The Wizard endorses these 3 casinos to play blackjack for real money. it also trains you to count cards in over 10 different blackjack card counting systems!

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And lastly would you even bother trying to count cards in a six-deck game? Tyson from Omaha, Nebraska, USA. There is a trade off with card counting strategies.

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Here you can check and use a calculator that gives you the house edge for virtually any set of blackjack rules and it can be used with proper.

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Blackjack Simulation, Blackjack Stastistics,Improve your Blackjack Game A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack By Wizard of odds A to Z Counting Cards in.

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The Wizard endorses these 3 casinos to play blackjack for real money. it also trains you to count cards in over 10 different blackjack card counting systems!

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I try to explain why card counting words in my page on card counting. How does the house have the advantage in Blackjack? Rob. The dealer has the advantageβ.

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For the non-card counter it may be assumed that the odds are the same in each new round. Putting aside some minor effects of deck composition, the dealer whoβ.

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The following paper takes an in depth look at the gambling game Blackjack, also known as Twenty Casinos becoming wise to the idea of card counting have pushed advantage players into forming Mike Shackelford, Wizard of 1kidsrepublic.ru

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Steve from Phoenix, AZ. From my blackjack appendix 7 we see that each 9 removed from a single deck game increases the house edge by 0. What you have experienced is likely the result of some very bad losing streaks. This is not even a marginal play. Following this rule will result in an extra unit once every hands. Repeat step 3 but multiply by 4 instead of 2, and this time consider getting an 8 as a third card, corresponding to the situation where the player is forced to stop resplitting. It took me years to get the splitting pairs correct myself. I know, I know, its some sort of divine intervention betting system I am talking about and no betting system affects the house edge. According to my blackjack appendix 9H the expected return of standing is So my hitting you will save 6. Take the dot product of the probability and expected value over each rank. All of this assumes flat betting, otherwise the math really gets messy. Because the sum of a large number of random variables always will approach a bell curve we can use the central limit theorem to get at the answer. My question though is what does that really mean? When the dealer stands on a soft 17, the dealer will bust about When the dealer hits on a soft 17, the dealer will bust about According to my blackjack appendix 4 , the probability of a net win is However, if we skip ties, the probability is So, the probability of a four wins in a row is 0. The probability of this is 1 in 5,,, For the probability for any number of throws from 1 to , please see my craps survival tables. So the probability of winning six in a row is 0. In that case, the probability of a win, given a resolved bet, is The probability of winning n hands is a row is 0. Or does it mean that on any given loss it is a 1 in chance that it was the first of 8 losses coming my way? Go through all ranks, except 8, subtract that card from the deck, play out a hand with that card and an 8, determine the expected value, and multiply by 2. It depends on the number of decks. Besides every once in awhile throwing down a bigger bet just adds to the excitement and for some reason it seems logical that if you have lost a string of hands you are "due" for a win. Take another 8 out of the deck. You are forgetting that there are two possible orders, either the ace or the ten can be first. It would take about 5 years playing blackjack 40 hours a week before this piece of advice saved the player one unit. These expected values consider all the numerous ways the hand can play out. There are cards remaining in the two decks and 32 are tens. So standing is the marginally better play. The best play for a billion hands is the best play for one hand. I have a very ugly subroutine full of long formulas I determine using probability trees.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Resplitting up to four hands is allowed. Multiply dot product from step 7 by probability in step 5. From my section on the house edge we find the standard deviation in blackjack to be 1. You ask a good question for which there is no firm answer. There are 24 sevens in the shoe. Here is the exact answer for various numbers of decks. It depends whether there is a shuffle between the blackjacks. Blackjack is not entirely a game of independent trials like roulette, but the deck is not predisposed to run in streaks. Let n be the number of decks. Unless you are counting cards you have the free will to bet as much as you want. I have no problem with increasing your bet when you get a lucky feeling. Thanks for the kind words. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}This is a typical question one might encounter in an introductory statistics class. Multiply dot product from step 11 by probability in step 9. If there were a shuffle between hands the probability would increase substantially. Your question however could be rephrased as, "what is the value of the ace, given that the other card is not a ten. What is important is that you play your cards right. Streaks, such as the dealer drawing a 5 to a 16, are inevitable but not predictable. Multiply this dot product by the probability from step 2. If I'm playing for fun then I leave the table when I'm not having fun any longer. I hope this answers your question. Is it that when I sit down at the table, 1 out of my next playing sessions I can expect to have an 8 hand losing streak? For the non-card counter it may be assumed that the odds are the same in each new round. For how to solve the problem yourself, see my MathProblems. The following table displays the results. Thanks for your kind words. As I always say all betting systems are equally worthless so flying by the seat of your pants is just as good as flat betting over the long term. For each rank determine the probability of that rank, given that the probability of another 8 is zero. Putting aside some minor effects of deck composition, the dealer who pulled a 5 to a 16 the last five times in a row would be just as likely to do it the next time as the dealer who had been busting on 16 for several hours. I recently replaced my blackjack appendix 4 with some information about the standard deviation which may help. If you were to add a card as the dealer you should add a 5, which increases the house edge by 0. However if you were going to cheat it would be much better to remove an ace, which increases the house edge by 0. However there are other ways you get four aces in the same hand, for example the last card might be an 8 or 9. That column seemed to put the mathematics to that "feeling" a player can get. There is no sound bite answer to explain why you should hit. When I said the probability of losing 8 hands in a row is 1 in I meant that starting with the next hand the probability of losing 8 in a row is 1 in The chances of 8 losses in a row over a session are greater the longer the session. If the probability of a blackjack is p then the probability of not getting any blackjacks in 10 hands is 1- 1-p For example in a six deck game the answer would be 1- 0. It may also be the result of progressive betting or mistakes in strategy. If you want to deviate from the basic strategy here are some borderline plays: 12 against 3, 12 against 4, 13 against 2, 16 against Deviating on these hands will cost you much less. Here is how I did it. Since this question was submitted, a player held the dice for rolls on May 23, in Atlantic City. Repeat step 3 but multiply by 3 instead of 2. The standard deviation of one hand is 1. So, the best card for the player is the ace and the best for the dealer is the 5. Any basic statistics book should have a standard normal table which will give the Z statistic of 0. Determine the probability that the player will resplit to 4 hands. To test the most likely case to favor hitting, 8 decks and only 3 cards, I ran every possible situation through my combinatorial program. Determine the probability that the player will not get a third eight on either hand. It is more a matter of degree, the more you play the more your results will approach the house edge. I would have to do a computer simulation to consider all the other combinations. The fewer the decks and the greater the number of cards the more this is true. According to my blackjack appendix 4 , the probability of an overall win in blackjack is I'm going to assume you wish to ignore ties for purposes of the streak. Expected Values for 3-card 16 Vs. Add values from steps 4, 8, and The hardest part of all this is step 3. In general the variation in the mean is inversely proportional to the square root of the number of hands you play. Probability of Blackjack Decks Probability 1 4. Determine the probability that the player will resplit to 3 hands. Cindy of Gambling Tools was very helpful.